Introduction

In the race for customer attention, every company faces a brutal reality:
What works today in marketing will inevitably stop working tomorrow.

First identified by Andrew Chen in his seminal 2017 essay, The Law of Shitty Clickthroughs, states:

“Over time, all marketing strategies result in lower response rates.”

The reasons are structural, not tactical. Human behavior, platform evolution, and competitive saturation guarantee that every marketing channel decays over time.

In a world where digital marketing costs have risen 60%+ since 2020 (BCG, Global Marketing Effectiveness 2023 link), understanding — and countering — the Law of Shitty Clickthroughs has become critical for strategists and business stakeholders.

The Inevitability of Declining Clickthroughs

Why Every Great Channel Eventually Fails

When a new marketing channel appears—think banner ads in 1996, Facebook ads in 2012, and  TikTok influencer marketing in 202  early adopters reap extraordinary returns.

• First banner ad (AT&T, 1994): 44% clickthrough rate.

• Early Facebook ads (2007–2010): 5–8% clickthrough rates.

• Early influencer campaigns on TikTok (2019): >10% engagement.

However, as more brands flood the channel, users become desensitized. Algorithms evolve. Costs rise.
The net effect? Response rates plummet.

Marketing tactics decay because attention is scarce — and every tactic eventually becomes noise.

The Strategic Risk of Chasing Yesterday’s Channels

The complication is severe:

• Diminishing returns: Marketing budgets balloon without proportional ROI.

• Consumer fatigue: Users increasingly block, ignore, or resist advertising.

• Higher acquisition costs: Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) has risen by 60%–70% in significant industries since 2019 (McKinsey Digital Growth Report 2023 link).

If companies keep spending unthinkingly on decaying channels, they risk:

• Burning capital on inefficient growth.

• Missing opportunities to pioneer emerging spaces.

• Losing long-term brand equity due to short-termism.

The New Mindset: Treat Channels as Perishable Assets

The key strategic position is clear:

• No channel is sacred.

• Every tactic is temporary.

• Agility beats nostalgia.

The companies that master this mindset continuously experiment, diversify acquisition strategies, and invest in owned channels (email, communities, proprietary apps).

The 3 Critical Takeaways for Strategic Leaders

1. Build a Systematic Marketing Innovation Engine

Why: Yesterday’s playbooks won't win tomorrow’s markets.

What:

• Treat marketing like R&D — budget for continuous testing, not just scaling.

• Allocate 15–25% of marketing spend to experimental channels.

How:

• Set up "growth labs" — small agile teams testing 10–20 new campaigns/channels per quarter.

• Use frameworks like the ICE model (Impact, Confidence, Ease) to prioritize experiments.

📊 BCG Study: Companies that systematically test new channels grow 2x faster than those optimizing existing channels only (BCG Growth Marketing Survey 2023).

2. Invest in Owned Media and Direct Relationships

Why: Paid channels decay; owned channels compound.

What:

• Prioritize building email lists, SMS subscribers, communities, and apps where you control the audience.

How:

• Implement lead capture across all marketing assets.

• Launch loyalty programs, communities, and exclusive content platforms.

📊 Deloitte’s CMO Report 2023 found that companies heavily invested in owned channels achieved 32% higher customer lifetime value (CLV) than companies dependent on paid media (Deloitte CMO Survey).

3. Treat High Performing Channels as Short-Term Arbitrage

Why: Every channel decays — so maximize early, exit before saturation.

What:

• View every new channel (e.g., Threads, BeReal, new ad formats) as a perishable opportunity.

How:

• Move fast: first-mover advantage matters.

• Monitor diminishing marginal returns obsessively (declining CTR, rising CAC).

📊 McKinsey Research: First-movers into emerging digital channels capture ~30–40% lower CAC than late adopters (McKinsey Digital Report 2023).

Opening Actions for Strategic Leaders

✅ Set aside an Innovation marketing budget (15–25% of total spend).
✅ Strengthen owned media channels (email, apps, communities).
✅ Create a "sunset plan" for scaling down decaying channels.

Key Benefits of Mastering the Law of Shitty Clickthroughs

✔️ Sustainable lower acquisition costs over time.
✔️ Faster adoption of emerging growth opportunities.
✔️ Higher customer loyalty through owned assets.
✔️ Sharper, more resilient marketing strategy.

🎯 Closing Thought

"In marketing, yesterday’s goldmine is tomorrow’s graveyard."

Winning companies embrace marketing decay as a fact of life — and build engines of continuous reinvention.